© Chad Raymond
Below is another example of generative AI’s rapidly advancing capabilities, via Anthropic’s Claude Sonnet 3.5. The comparison of the scholarship is accurate, but I have changed the authors’ names, so if you ever see an essay citing the Three Stooges as China experts, you know that AI wrote it.
Prompt
Write a 1,000-word argumentative essay that answers these questions: “What are the domestic sources of Chinese foreign policy?” “What advantages and constraints do they pose for Chinese foreign policy?” “Why?” Support the essay’s argument with examples from publications by the China scholars Larry, Moe, Curly, Shemp, and Joe.
Response
China’s foreign policy, like that of any major power, is deeply rooted in its domestic political, economic, and social realities. This essay argues that the primary domestic sources of Chinese foreign policy are: (1) the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) imperative to maintain political legitimacy, (2) the need for sustained economic growth, and (3) the management of nationalist sentiment. While these factors provide certain advantages for China’s international engagement, they also impose significant constraints. Understanding these domestic drivers is crucial for comprehending the complexities and sometimes contradictory nature of Chinese foreign policy.
The CCP’s quest for political legitimacy is perhaps the most fundamental driver of Chinese foreign policy. As Larry has argued, the Party has based its right to rule on a concept he terms “authoritarian resilience.” This involves a combination of performance-based legitimacy (primarily economic growth) and institutional adaptations that allow the regime to be responsive to public opinion without fundamentally altering its authoritarian nature. This dual foundation profoundly influences China’s international behavior.
On one hand, it pushes China to pursue a largely cooperative foreign policy that facilitates economic growth through trade, investment, and technology transfer. Moe has noted that this economic imperative has been a primary driver of China’s integration into the global economy and its generally status quo-oriented approach to international institutions. On the other hand, it sometimes necessitates a more assertive stance on issues of national pride and sovereignty to satisfy nationalist sentiments and demonstrate the Party’s role as defender of Chinese interests.
The advantage of this legitimacy-based approach is that it allows China to present a mostly non-threatening image to the world while steadily increasing its global influence. By emphasizing “win-win cooperation” and “peaceful development,” China has been able to expand its economic ties and soft power without triggering the kind of balancing coalitions that rising powers have historically faced.
However, this same focus on legitimacy also constrains Chinese foreign policy. Curly has argued that the CCP’s reliance on performance legitimacy creates a constant pressure to deliver economic results, limiting China’s ability to take actions that might jeopardize its economic relationships, even when such actions might otherwise align with its strategic interests. For instance, despite tensions with the United States, China has been cautious about using its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds as a weapon, recognizing that doing so could harm its own economy.
Moreover, the nationalist component of the CCP’s legitimacy creates pressure for tough stances on territorial disputes and issues of national pride. This can lead to counterproductive actions that damage China’s international image and relationships. The aggressive assertion of maritime claims in the South China Sea, for example, has alarmed neighboring countries and contributed to closer security ties between these nations and the United States.
The imperative of economic growth is another crucial domestic source of Chinese foreign policy. China’s rapid development has been central to the CCP’s performance-based legitimacy, but maintaining high growth rates has become increasingly challenging as the economy matures. This economic imperative drives many aspects of China’s international behavior, from its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to its push for a larger role in global economic governance.
The advantage of this growth-oriented foreign policy is that it aligns China’s interests with global economic stability and development. China has become a major advocate for globalization and free trade, positions that have gained it supporters among both developed and developing nations. The BRI, in particular, has allowed China to export its excess industrial capacity while gaining political influence through infrastructure development abroad.
However, the focus on economic growth also constrains China’s options. The need to secure resources and markets makes China vulnerable to economic coercion and limits its ability to use economic leverage against other countries. Furthermore, as Chinese companies expand globally, Beijing is increasingly forced to engage with issues it had previously avoided, such as political instability in Africa or the Middle East.
Shemp and Joe have explored how the CCP has attempted to learn from other authoritarian regimes, particularly in East Asia, to maintain its rule. This learning process has influenced not only domestic governance but also foreign policy. For instance, China’s emphasis on economic performance and its efforts to co-opt potential opposition groups mirror strategies used by other authoritarian regimes in the region. In terms of foreign policy, this has translated into a focus on economic diplomacy and a resistance to Western pressure for political liberalization.
The management of nationalist sentiment is the third major domestic source of Chinese foreign policy. The CCP has actively cultivated nationalism as a unifying force and source of legitimacy, particularly through patriotic education campaigns and control of media narratives. This nationalist sentiment provides the government with a powerful tool to mobilize public support for its foreign policy objectives.
The advantage of this nationalist underpinning is that it allows the Chinese government to take strong stances on issues it deems crucial to national interests, such as Taiwan or territorial disputes. Public opinion can be leveraged to pressure other countries or to resist international criticism of China’s actions.
However, nationalism is a double-edged sword that can significantly constrain foreign policy options. Once nationalist sentiments are aroused, it becomes difficult for the government to make compromises or back down without risking public backlash. This dynamic has been evident in China’s relations with Japan, where historical animosities and territorial disputes have repeatedly flared up, damaging economic ties that are crucial for both countries.
Larry has pointed out that while the CCP has been successful in fostering nationalism, it also fears that nationalist sentiments could turn against the regime if it is perceived as weak in defending national interests. This creates a delicate balancing act in foreign policy, where the government must appear strong without escalating conflicts to a point that could harm economic interests or international relationships.
In conclusion, the domestic sources of Chinese foreign policy – the CCP’s legitimacy imperatives, the need for economic growth, and the management of nationalism – create a complex interplay of advantages and constraints. They allow China to pursue a largely cooperative international strategy focused on economic engagement, while simultaneously driving more assertive behavior on issues of sovereignty and national pride. Understanding these domestic drivers is crucial for interpreting China’s sometimes seemingly contradictory actions on the global stage.
Looking ahead, the tension between these different domestic imperatives is likely to become more pronounced as China faces slowing economic growth and increasing international pushback against its rising power. Curly has argued that the CCP’s current model of governance may not be sustainable in the long term, which could have profound implications for China’s foreign policy. How the CCP navigates these challenges will have significant consequences not only for China’s domestic stability but also for the future of the international order.