As promised in my last post, here is an example of iterating so that students repeatedly practice the same skills.
As I’ve previously mentioned, I’m putting a forecasting project into my fall semester Middle East course. The project’s constituent assignments will be based on the CHAMP system recommended by people like Phil Tetlock. A brief description of CHAMP is at the end of this Financial Times article by the economist Tim Harford.
My prompt for the first CHAMP assignment reads:
You are interviewing for a job with Eurasia Group. The interview process requires that you submit a forecast on your team’s Forecasting Project topic. The forecast needs to use the CHAMP framework:
- Comparisons
- Historical Trends
- Average Opinion
- Mathematical Models
- Predictable Biases
In a one-page, double-spaced, 11- or 12-point font document, answer these questions for the Comparisons portion of your forecast:
What other cases are comparable to this situation?
How do they indicate what will happen this time?
My guiding questions for the other CHAMP assignments are:
Historical Trends
What individuals, groups, and institutions played key roles in similar events in the past?
How are these “power players” likely to influence the current situation?
Average Opinion
What are the experts predicting about this situation?
What is the view that lies in the middle of their assessments?
Mathematical Models
Are there mathematical models or empirical measures that can be used to gain insight into this situation?
What do these models or measures indicate?
Predictable Biases
How has your thinking been affected by emotion and personal preference?
How have you adjusted your analysis to account for these biases?
I’ll talk about the team-based aspects of this project in a future post.