A Quick Exercise on Confirmation Bias and Hypothesis Testing

This neat exercise featured on the New York Times takes a few seconds to play and includes a neat set of examples of how confirmation bias impacts government policy and corporate America.

Basically, you are presented with 3 numbers in a sequence, and asked to guess the rule that governs the sequence. You can enter in any 3 numbers you like, and the system will tell you whether or not your sequence follows the rule or not. When you are ready to guess, you enter it in but you receive no second chances. Apparently 78% of people make a guess without getting a single ‘no’–and most get the rule wrong.

The example in the NY Times is ‘2, 4, 8’. A number of possible rules could come to mind–must contain multiples of 2, or even numbers, or that the number doubles the one before it. The actually rule in this case is even simpler: the number must be larger than the one before it, meaning that ‘4, 8, 16’ works, but so does ‘1, 10, 3593’.

They don’t mention it in the article, but this exercise can adapted to teach hypothesis testing. Used in class, you can put the sequence on the board and have students suggest other sequences, which you then judge as either following or not following the rule. They have to use this information to come up with the right answer.

If this sounds familiar, it may be because one of the very first entries on this blog was about the board game Zendo, which does precisely this, only with physical pieces rather than numbers. I still use Zendo on day 1 of my methods class, and find it a really useful tool for teaching a variety of methodological skills. This numerical version is a great, easy activity to pull out for a quick fix on helping students with their logical thinking.

Fear and Loathing of Broccoli

Fear and LoathingI very rarely incorporate feature films into my courses — Dr. Strangelove has been one of the few exceptions — but anyone who is teaching political psychology should take a look at Inside Out from Pixar. The film, for which the psychologists Paul Ekman and Dacher Keltner functioned as consultants, is a visual representation an 11-year old girl’s mind. Emotions take the center stage, especially in regards to memory formation and retrieval, but imagination, attention, and other processes also play into the film’s plot. More detail on the science incorporated into Inside Out is here.

Confirmation Games

KatnissThe New York Times recently published an interactive illustration of confirmation bias: guess the rule obeyed by a sequence of three numbers. I won’t go into detail about the game other than to say that it’s wonderfully simple and I definitely fell into the mind trap. Some implications for politics and business are presented after players submit their answers and this can provide a launch point for class discussion.

The puzzle nicely complements the Zendo game in which players create hypotheses about an arrangement of blocks — by demonstrating the cognitive biases that affect much of our decision making.

The Best Laid Plans

Cat and MouseA while back I wrote a series of posts on reworking my first-year seminar. My assumption was that this fall’s version would meet three days a week, as happened in the course’s initial iteration. I recently learned that instead it will meet on Tuesdays and Thursdays. Given that much of the course involves student-to-student interaction in the classroom, the new schedule necessitated further changes. To start, I dropped the book that I had originally fit into the last third of the semester, and with it plans for a class-wide Twine project. The course now looks like this:

  • Team-based Twines on the book An Ordinary Man (Rwanda).
  • Simulation exercises on the first four cases in Chasing Chaos (Rwanda, Sudan, Sri Lanka, Sierra Leone).
  • Team-based Twines on the last case in Chasing Chaos (Haiti).

Since this is a course for incoming college students, I added The New Science of Learning and some other meta-cognitive content on skills for academic success. This means that students will have on average three writing assignments on readings per week even though the class only meets twice a week, which I think this is a good thing. Students won’t be able to forget about the course between Thursdays and Tuesdays.

As I discussed in my informal assessment back in January, I had a problematic formulation for the briefing memo that prepared students for each Chasing Chaos simulation. I’ve rewritten the assignment instructions accordingly, and created a new sample memo for students to use as a guide. The effort that I’m putting into the design of this course reflects something about how college works that I’ll discuss in more detail in my next two posts.

Book Review: The New Science of Learning

New Science of LearningWe’ve talked previously about Classroom Assessment Techniques by Thomas Angelo and K. Patricia Cross (here, here, and here), so I thought I’d post a review of another book:

Terry Doyle and Todd Zakrajsek, The New Science of Learning: How to Learn in Harmony with Your Brain, Stylus Publishing, 2013.

The New Science of Learning is a very concise and easy-to-read advice guide for undergraduates that is based on the findings of cognitive science research. I’ll be using it this fall in my first-year seminar. My hope is that it will help students, many of whom are not that well prepared for college, improve their academic performance. Here is one of the book’s authors speaking at Quinnipiac University, from the perspective of how to teach more effectively.

I’ve created these writing assignments that correspond to the chapters of the book:

  • Of the different practices that help people learn more effectively, which is the one that you currently use the least frequently? What would you need to change in your life so that you used it more frequently?
  • Think about the last three nights. How well did you sleep on each of these nights? What changes would enable you to sleep better? How can you implement these changes?
  • Thinks about the last three days. At what times were you physically active and for how long? How did your levels of mental alertness change during the day? Do you notice any pattern between physical activity and alertness?
  • Do you write notes by hand in your college courses? Do you annotate text that is assigned in these courses? Why? Given the benefits on learning of note-taking and annotating reading assignments, how well will you perform academically this semester? 
  • Describe an assignment in one of your courses this semester that reflects the pattern recognition principle of similarity/difference, proximity, figure-ground, or cause/effect. What is the assignment and how does it reflect the principle? What will be the effect on your understanding or memory of the material?
  • Name an activity in which you use either distributed practice or elaboration. What is a specific change that you can make in your daily behavior to better incorporate either one into your college experience?
  • What is your approach to failure? Do you embrace the possibility of it or try to avoid it at all costs? When you fail, what is your reaction? Based on your answers to these questions, do you have a growth mindset or a fixed mindset toward learning? Why?
  • Do you engage in task shifting? When? What is a specific change that you can make in your daily behavior to reduce task shifting?

Fail Safe Not

Fail SafeThis is the fifth semester that I have used the quality of failure essay as an end-of-semester exercise in meta-cognitive reflection, after Amanda* first posted about the concept almost three years ago.

Even though the essay is only two to three pages, I make it worth the equivalent of half of a letter grade because it forces students to acknowledge that they are responsible for their own learning. Or so I thought. 

Out of my forty-five students this semester, sixteen failed to submit the assignment on time or at all. This occurred despite an eight-day window in which students could upload their work to the course website and my continuing effort to prevent them from engaging in learned helplessness. Those who did not meet the deadline ranged from freshmen to seniors and most of them had performed at a mediocre (or worse) level throughout the semester. Some approached me after the final to ask if they could turn in this and other unsubmitted assignments to salvage their grades (no). Conversely and as usual, the best students submitted their essays the earliest. 

To avoid the stream of “Uh, I forgot” emails next semester, I’m creating a “failure to learn from failure” assignment, worth half as much as the quality of failure essay. This second essay will be only for those students who do not meet the deadline of the first one, and I’ll set the window of availability for forty-eight hours. Students will have to specify why they failed to take advantage of the first essay in addition to following the same instructions on the essay’s content.

Although my perceptions might be getting clouded by age, I believe that my experience this semester is part of an increasingly stark bimodal distribution among students at my employer. Some come in already possessing the motivation and skills necessary to succeed in college. A nearly equal portion arrive assuming that they will never be held accountable for their willed ignorance. Unfortunately some in the latter category apparently never discover in four years of college that this assumption is false.

*recently tenured and promoted, evidence that good things can happen to good people.